Traffic Forecasts for the Preparation of the European Grant Application for the Seine-Scheldt Project.
Stratec was commissioned to update the multimodal traffic projections for the Seine-Nord Europe Canal to inform the socio-economic evaluation and the European grant application for the project.
Location: Seine-Scheldt (FR, BE)
Client: Voies Navigables de France (VNF)
Date: 2019-2021
Context
The Seine-Nord Europe Canal is a project aiming to connect, via a new large-gauge canal, the Seine river basin, particularly the Paris metropolitan area, with the waterway network of Northern France and the Benelux countries. To achieve this, this 107 km canal must connect the Oise River to the Dunkirk-Scheldt Canal.
The project has been adapted several times, requiring regular updates to socio-economic studies.
This study updates the traffic projections carried out in 2017-2018, taking into account recent developments in the macroeconomic context, including the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, and changes in the productivity of transport modes. Particular attention is paid to long-term demand projections, especially for the container sector.
Objectives
The study aims to update traffic forecasts for all Seine-Scheldt projects located in France and Belgium, for the horizons 2035 and 2070.
These projections make it possible to evaluate the project’s impact on multimodal transport and to provide reliable data (congestion, surplus variation, external transport costs) for the cost-benefit analysis.
Methodology
Traffic forecasts were carried out using the four steps multimodal model NODUS developed by Stratec. The model integrates road, rail, and waterway networks, demand matrices, cost functions, and shippers’ modal choices.
The parameters have been updated to reflect the planned infrastructure, macroeconomic assumptions, and the evolution of demand and productivity.
The results include forecasts by mode, variations between baseline and project, tonne-kilometers, and surpluses for 2035 and 2070, serving as a basis for the project’s socio-economic evaluation.
Contact
Have questions or a specific need? Contact our expert now.
- Matthieu Bogaert
- m.bogaert@stratec.eu
- Head of Studies
- +32 2 738 78 83